Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations

Citations Over TimeTop 1% of 2017 papers

Abstract

Abstract Projections of precipitation and its extremes over the European continent are analyzed in an extensive multimodel ensemble of 12 and 50 km resolution EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A systematic intercomparison with ENSEMBLES RCMs is carried out, such that in total information is provided for an unprecedentedly large data set of 100 RCM simulations. An evaluation finds very reasonable skill for the EURO‐CORDEX models in simulating temporal and geographical variations of (mean and heavy) precipitation at both horizontal resolutions. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify across most of Europe throughout the whole year. All considered models agree on a distinct intensification of extremes by often more than +20% in winter and fall and over central and northern Europe. A reduction of rainy days and mean precipitation in summer is simulated by a large majority of models in the Mediterranean area, but intermodel spread between the simulations is large. In central Europe and France during summer, models project decreases in precipitation but more intense heavy and extreme rainfalls. Comparison to previous RCM projections from ENSEMBLES reveals consistency but slight differences in summer, where reductions in southern European precipitation are not as pronounced as previously projected. The projected changes of the European hydrological cycle may have substantial impact on environmental and anthropogenic systems. In particular, the simulations indicate a rising probability of summertime drought in southern Europe and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall across all of Europe.

Related Papers

• → Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models(2021)79 cited
• → Assessing CMIP5 general circulation model simulations of precipitation and temperature over China(2014)62 cited
• → A high-resolution projected climate dataset for Vietnam: Construction and preliminary application in assessing future change(2022)22 cited
• → A non-local model output statistics approach for the downscaling of CMIP5 GCMs for the projection of rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia(2019)19 cited
• → A hydrological toolkit to delineate patterns of blue and green water in a regional semi-arid climate in Iran via CMIP5 models(2021)