Predicted Relative Occupancy Probability of Raccoon Dogs ( Nyctereutes procyonoides ) in Northeast Beijing Using Bayesian Occupancy Models

Abstract

ABSTRACT Beijing has designated the raccoon dog ( Nyctereutes procyonoides ) as a protected species, and its protection status has been elevated to the national level in China. However, current knowledge of the species in Beijing is largely derived from localised studies, and region‐wide assessments remain lacking, despite its high conservation priority. In particular, understanding species distribution is fundamental to both ecology and conservation. This study evaluated raccoon dog occurrence patterns across environmental gradients and their spatial distribution in northeast Beijing, using Bayesian occupancy models based on camera‐trap detection–nondetection data. We examined the effects of environmental and anthropogenic factors; following model selection, minor road density and human population density were retained as key predictors. Predicted relative occupancy probability declined markedly with increasing densities of both variables, suggesting avoidance of human‐disturbed areas. Spatial predictions indicated higher predicted relative occupancy probabilities within nature reserves and in the northern part of the study area, while lower predicted occupancy in the southern part reflects the concentration of human‐related factors. These findings provide the first region‐wide assessment of raccoon dog occupancy in northeast Beijing, highlighting the importance of accounting for anthropogenic pressures. They also provide a regional baseline of raccoon dog distribution and offer insights to inform conservation planning and management.