Statistical identification of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall

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Abstract

Abstract Regional models of extreme rainfall must address the spatial variability induced by orographic obstacles. However, the proper detection of orographic effects often depends on the availability of a well‐designed rain gauge network. The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for identifying and characterizing the effects of orography on the spatial structure of extreme rainfall at the regional scale, including where rainfall data are lacking or fail to describe rainfall features thoroughly. We analyse the annual maxima of daily rainfall data in the Campania region, an orographically complex region in Southern Italy, and introduce a statistical procedure to identify spatial outliers in a low order statistic (namely the mean). The locations of these outliers are then compared with a pattern of orographic objects that has been a priori identified through the application of an automatic geomorphological procedure. The results show a direct and clear link between a particular set of orographic objects and a local increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall. This analysis allowed us to objectively identify areas where orography produces enhanced variability in extreme rainfall. It has direct implications for rain gauge network design criteria and has led to promising developments in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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