Influence of Central and East ENSO on precipitation and its extreme events in South America during austral autumn and winter

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Abstract

ABSTRACT It is known that the El Niño – Southern Oscillation ( ENSO ) episodes have a great influence on South American precipitation and its extreme events during austral autumn (from March until May, MAM ) and winter (from June until August, JJA ) that occur after the ENSO peak (normally this happens on austral summer). Recent papers have studied the two types of ENSO and their influence on atmosphere–ocean system. This study analysed the influence of Central and East equatorial Pacific ENSO on South American seasonal/monthly mean precipitation and its extreme events during MAM and JJA . The composites of precipitation anomalies, during these two types of ENSO , show that there are different, even opposite patterns over South America. In MAM , there is an increased precipitation in southeastern South America and a decrease in the northeast South America during East El Niño ( EEN ) and an increased precipitation in central Brazil during Central El Niño ( CEN ). In JJA , the signs of anomaly precipitation are opposite between CEN (less precipitation) and EEN (more precipitation) over southeastern South America. The extreme precipitation events show patterns consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns, but, normally, the changes in the frequency of extremes precipitation events affect more extensive areas than the total precipitation. If monthly or seasonal atmospheric anomalies in a certain region during one of the types of ENSO are similar (opposite) to the atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in this region, then there is enhancement (suppression) of the frequency of extreme events in this region during this type of ENSO .

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