Evaluation of the climate models used by the IPCC based on the position of the ITCZ in the Equatorial South Atlantic

Abstract

Abstract A number of the uncertainties in climate projections for the end of the century are due to the difficulty of general circulation models (GCMs) to represent large‐scale precipitating systems such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the historical period. In this study, we evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 models based on the position of the ITCZ in the South Atlantic during the period in which it is climatologically further south (February–May). This period characterizes the rainy season of the Brazilian semiarid. The models were ranked according to two objective methods and validated through a qualitative analysis. The first method considered a success rate to evaluate the correct position of the areas with maximum precipitation and minimum pressure and meridional wind as representative of the mean position of the ITCZ. Among the 15 coupled GCMs analysed for each CMIP, those that best represented the position of the ITCZ were HADGEM.2‐AO, MIROC5 and CANESM2 from CMIP5 and CESM2 and MIROC6 from CMIP6. These models represented well the following characteristics of the ITCZ in February–May: maximum precipitation near the equator at the height of the coast of South America and with the wind convergence zone sloping north towards the African continent. The most common problem noticed in the other GCMs was to displace the ITCZ to the south of its observed mean position within the period February–May. Also, some GCMs presented a double ITCZ (GISS‐E2‐H, GDFL‐CM3 and IPSL‐CM5A‐LR from CMIP5 and INM‐CM5‐0 from CMIP6) following two high TSM cores. One GCM (ACCESS1‐3 from CMIP5) presented a relatively good performance, but the zone of greater precipitation was shifted to the east, being located in the centre of the Atlantic basin. Knowing how the GCMs represent the ITCZ is a criterion that must be considered when choosing the GCMs for climate change studies.

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