Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree‐ring width

Citations Over TimeTop 1% of 2003 papers

Abstract

Abstract Two reconstructions of spring (May–June) precipitation have been developed for southwestern Turkey. The first reconstruction (1776–1998) was developed from principal components of nine chronologies of Cedrus libani, Juniperus excelsa, Pinus brutia , and Pinus nigra . The second reconstruction (1339–1998) was derived from principal components of three J. excelsa chronologies. Calibration and verification statistics of both reconstructions indicate reasonably accurate reconstruction of spring precipitation for southwestern Turkey, and show clear evidence of multi‐year to decadal variations in spring precipitation. The longest period of reconstructed spring drought, defined as consecutive years with less than 80% of normal May–June precipitation, was 4 years (1476–79). Only one drought event of this duration has occurred during the last six centuries. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a less than 33% probability that southwestern Turkey has experienced spring drought longer than 5 years in the past 660 years. Apart from the 1476–79 extended dry period, spring droughts of 3 years in length have only occurred from 1700 to the present. The longest reconstructed wet period, defined as consecutive years with more than 120% of normal May–June precipitation, was 4 years (1532–35). The absence of extended spring drought during the 16th and 17th centuries and the occurrence of extended wet spring periods during these centuries suggest a possible regime shift in climate. Preliminary analysis of links between large‐scale climatic variation and these climate reconstructions shows that there is a relationship between extremes in spring precipitation and anomalous atmospheric circulation in the region. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Related Papers

• Pinus halepensis × Pinus brutia subsp. brutia hybrids? Identification using morphological and biochemical traits.(1995)
• → Determination of some physical and mechanical properties of Calabrian pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) trees grown in the Denizli area of Turkey(2013)5 cited
• → Microscopic distinction of wood between two Pinus species; P. Halepensis and P. Brutia(2022)1 cited
• → Chemical, Morphological and Physiological Identification of the Influence of Air Pollution on Pinus Brutia Ten(1996)1 cited
• → ФИТОЦЕНОТИЧЕСКАЯ СТРУКТУРА НАСАЖДЕНИЙ PINUS BRUTIA VAR. PITYUSA (STEVEN) SILBA ГОРНОГО КРЫМА, "Наука юга России"(2022)