Social distancing merely stabilized COVID‐19 in the United States
Citations Over TimeTop 18% of 2020 papers
Abstract
Social distancing measures have been imposed across the United States in order to stem the spread of COVID-19. We quantify the reduction in the doubling rate, by state, that is associated with this intervention. Using the earlier of K-12 school closures and restaurant closures, by state, to define the start of the intervention, and considering daily confirmed cases through April 23, 2020, we find that social distancing is associated with a statistically-significant (p -1 to 0.010 (-0.007, 0.028) days-1. However, we do not find that social distancing has made the spread subcritical. Instead, social distancing has merely stabilized the spread of the disease. We provide an illustration of our findings for each state, including estimates of the effective reproduction number, R, both with and without social distancing. We also discuss the policy implications of our findings.
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