Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Exposure and Impacts in Southeast Asia From CMIP6 Pseudo‐Global Warming Simulations

Citations Over TimeTop 10% of 2022 papers

Abstract

Abstract In this Pseudo‐global Warming study, potential future changes in the Southeast Asia tropical cyclone (TC) exposure climatology are quantified. One hundred and seventeen landfalling TCs in the last 20 years are simulated with their current climate conditions and also with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble perturbed conditions under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP3‐7.0 climate change scenarios. Our simulations suggest that landfalling TCs are projected to be 8% more intense at landfall, 2.8% faster and have smaller sizes by the end of the 21st century under the SSP3‐7.0 scenario. In addition, TC landfall locations shift northward with tracks extending further inland toward Laos and Thailand. In particular, TC exposures, wind and rainfall impacts significantly increase in the northern Philippines, Taiwan, southwestern coast of China, and northern Vietnam; and significantly decrease in the southern areas of Southeast Asia and the southeastern coast of China.

Related Papers

• → More tropical cyclones are striking coasts with major intensities at landfall(2022)46 cited
• → Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2007(2009)38 cited
• → The Relationship Between the Inner‐Core Size and the Rainfall Distribution in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over China(2022)15 cited
• → Will a tropical cyclone make landfall?(2022)1 cited
• → A Model for the Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Response to Idealized Landfall(2022)2 cited