Predicting Influenza Infections during Epidemics with Use of a Clinical Case Definition
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Abstract
Combined pharyngeal and nasal swab specimens were collected from 100 subjects who presented with a flu-like illness (fever >37.8 degrees C plus 2 of 4 symptoms: cough, myalgia, sore throat, and headache) of or =38.2 degrees C as well as 3 or 4 of the symptoms in the clinical case definition. Stepwise logistic regression showed that cough (odds ratio [OR], 6.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-34.1; P=.02) and fever (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-8.0; P=.01) were the only factors significantly associated with a positive PCR test for influenza. The positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, and the specificity of a case definition including fever (temperature of >38 degrees C) and cough for the diagnosis of influenza infection during this flu season were 86.8%, 39.3%, 77.6%, and 55.0%, respectively.
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