How to do (or not to do).Using capture-recapture in promoting public health

Abstract

Capture-recapture refers to a collection of statistical models that can be used to estimate population size using two or more overlapping sources of information about the same population. The capture-recapture technique is used commonly in demography to estimate the completeness of census data and vital registration systems and to estimate population birth and death rates. Further potential applications of the technique include obtaining improved estimates of the prevalence of child abuse certain forms of injuries extra-marital rape severe alcoholism septic abortions and the numbers of street children. Where more than two sources of information are available log-linear capture-recapture models can be used to obtain population estimates controlling for different forms of dependency between sample sites. In order to estimate the numbers of sex workers in Mutare Zimbabwe staff interviewed sex workers at a weighted random sample of bars over the Friday and Saturday nights of 2 consecutive weekends at months end. An analysis of the numbers of sex workers seen from 1 to 4 times was then used to estimate the overall number of women selling sex from bars over the study. Issues in capture-recapture study design include defining the population being estimated; accounting for population mobility and mortality; controlling for population heterogeneity; methods used to distinguish individuals; and the extent of repeat contacts. A substantial influx of sex workers occurred in bars between the 1st and 2nd weekend when men in the formal sector had just been paid. Each night different gifts were given to each sex worker interviewed to distinguish individuals. Generally the larger the overlap between samples the more accurate the estimate obtained. Capture-recapture methods are potentially a useful and feasible way of estimating the size of hidden covert or marginalized populations and to check the completeness of other forms of survey.

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