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Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

Conservation Letters2021Vol. 14(3), pp. e12783–e12783

Citations Over TimeTop 10% of 2021 papers

Jeremy J. Cusack, Tom Bradfer‐Lawrence, Zachary Baynham‐Herd, Sofia Castelló y Tickell, Isla Duporge, Håvard Hegre, Lara Moreno‐Zarate, Vincent N. Naude, Sahil Nijhawan, John Wilson, Darío Gerardo Zambrano Cortés, Nils Bunnefeld

Abstract

Conflicts between the interests of biodiversity conservation and other human activities pose a major threat to natural ecosystems and human well-being, yet few methods exist to quantify their intensity and model their dynamics. We develop a categorization of conflict intensity based on the curve of conflict, a model originally used to track the escalation and deescalation of armed conflicts. Our categorization assigns six intensity levels reflecting the discourse and actions of stakeholders involved in a given conflict, from coexistence or collaboration to physical violence. Using a range of case studies, we demonstrate the value of our approach in quantifying conflict trends, estimating transition probabilities between conflict stages, and modeling conflict intensity as a function of relevant covariates. By taking an evidence-based approach to quantifying stakeholder behavior, the proposed framework allows for a better understanding of the drivers of conservation conflict development across a diverse range of socioecological scenarios.

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