The Accelerating Exposure of European Protected Areas to Climate Change

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Abstract

All ecosystems are affected by climate change, but differences in the pace of change will render some areas more exposed than others. Such spatial patterns of risk are important when assessing the continued functionality of protected area (PA) networks or planning for their expansion. Europe is undertaking an expansion of the PA network to cover 30% of its land and sea surface by 2030, but this must account for climate risk. Here, we estimate four metrics of future climate risk across Europe: local velocity, analog velocity, magnitude, and residence time, and assess the level of climate exposure of European PAs vs. nonprotected control sites. We also evaluate the intensity of climate risks on > 1000 European species of conservation concern associated with Natura 2000 sites. Our results show large spatial differences in climate change exposure across Europe, with a faster pace and farther shifts in the Boreal, Steppic, and Pannonian regions but slower changes in the Mediterranean, Alpine, Arctic, and Macaronesia regions. The magnitude of climate change was higher for the Arctic, Alpine, and Mediterranean regions, implying large local differences between present and future climate. These spatial risk patterns were largely consistent across scenarios, but with up to three times higher risk under the most pessimistic vs. the most optimistic scenario. Large variation in climate exposure for species of conservation concern was revealed, including 11 species that are highly dependent on Natura 2000 sites and predicted to experience rapid climate change. Our results provide guidance for managing European PAs and expanding their coverage by pinpointing areas offering more stable climates. We emphasize the need for connectivity across the network to support species adaptation via range shifting. This is especially the case in areas facing high climate change magnitude but low velocity, implying that climate conditions similar to current ones will be found nearby.

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