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The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

Journal of Viral Hepatitis2014Vol. 21(s1), pp. 34–59

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Homie Razavi, Imam Waked, Christoph Sarrazin, Robert P. Myers, Ramazan Idılman, Filipe Calinas, W. Vogel, Maria Cássia Mendes Corrêa, Christophe Hézode, Pablo Lázaro, Ulus Salih Akarca, Soo Aleman, İsmail Balık, Thomas Berg, Florian Bihl, Marc Bilodeau, Antonio Javier Blasco, Carlos Eduardo Brandão‐Mello, Philip Bruggmann, Marı́a Buti, José Luís Calleja, Hugo Cheinquer, Peer Brehm Christensen, Mette Rye Clausen, Henrique Sergio Coelho, Matthew Cramp, G.J. Dore, W. Doss, Ann‐Sofi Duberg, Manal H. El‐Sayed, Gül Ergör, Gamal Esmat, Karolin Falconer, J Félix, Maria Lúcia Gomes Ferraz, Paulo Roberto Abrão Ferreira, Soňa Fraňková, Javier García‐Samaniego, Jan Gerstoft, José Gíria, Fernando Lopes Gonçales, E. Gower, Michael Gschwantler, Mário Guimarães Pessôa, S. J. Hindman, Heribert Hofer, Petr Husa, Martin Kåberg, Kelly Kaita, Achim Kautz, Sabahattin Kaymakoğlu, Mel Krajden, Henrik Krarup, Wim Laleman, Daniel Lavanchy, Rui Tato Marinho, Paul Marotta, Stefan Mauss, Christophe Moreno, K. Murphy, Francesco Negro, Vratislav Němeček, Necati Örmecı, Anne Øvrehus, Julie Parkes, K. Pasini, Kevork Peltekian, Alnoor Ramji, Nathalia Rodrigues dos Reis, S. Roberts, William Rosenberg, Françoise Roudot‐Thoraval, Stephen Ryder, Rui Sarmento‐Castro, David Semela, Morris Sherman, Gamal Shiha, William Sievert, Jan Šperl, Peter Stärkel, R.E. Stauber, A. Thompson, Petr Urbánek, Pierre Van Damme, Ingo van Thiel, Hans Van Vlierberghe, Dominique Vandijck, Heiner Wedemeyer, Nina Weis, Johannes Wiegand, A. Yosry, Amany Zekry, Markus Cornberg, Beat Müllhaupt, Chris Estes

Abstract

Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high-treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV-related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality.

Citations Over TimeTop 1% of 2014 papers

Abstract

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