Uncovering the role of solar radiation and water stress factors in constraining decadal intra‐site spring phenology variability in diverse ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere

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Abstract

The spring phenology has advanced significantly over recent decades with climate change, impacting large-scale biogeochemical cycles, climate feedback, and other essential ecosystem processes. Although numerous prognostic models have been developed for spring phenology, regional analyses of the optimality (OPT) strategy model that incorporate environmental variables beyond temperature and photoperiod remain lacking. We investigated the roles of solar radiation (SR) and three water stress factors (precipitation (P), soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD)) on spring phenology from 1982 to 2015 using the OPT model with Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies NDVI3g dataset and environmental data from TerraClimate, CRU_TS, and Global Land Data Assimilation System across the Northern Hemisphere (> 30°N). Our results show that SR and water stress factors significantly impacted intrasite decadal spring phenology variability, with water stress factors dominant in grassland ecosystems while SR dominated in the rest of the ecosystem types. Enhanced models incorporating SR (OPT-S) and VPD (OPT-VPD) outperformed the original OPT model, likely due to improved representation of the adaptive strategy of spring phenology to optimize photosynthetic carbon gain while minimizing frost risk. Our research enhances the understanding of the key environmental drivers influencing decadal spring phenology variation in the Northern Hemisphere and contributes to more accurate forecasts of ecological responses to global environmental change.

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