Efficient Bayesian inference of Instantaneous Reproduction Numbers at Fine Spatial Scales, with an Application to Mapping and Nowcasting the Covid-19 Epidemic in British Local Authorities
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)2022Vol. 185(Supplement_1), pp. S65–S85
Citations Over TimeTop 14% of 2022 papers
Yee Whye Teh, Bryn Elesedy, Bobby He, Michael Hutchinson, Sheheryar Zaidi, Avishkar Bhoopchand, Ulrich Paquet, Nenad Tomašev, Jonathan M. Read, Peter J. Diggle
Abstract
information about population flows to model potential transmissions across local areas. A simple approach to posterior simulation quickly becomes computationally infeasible, which is problematic if the system is required to provide timely predictions. We describe how to make posterior simulation for the model efficient, so that we are able to provide daily updates on epidemic developments.
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