Pattern in Escalations in Insurgent and Terrorist Activity
Science2011Vol. 333(6038), pp. 81–84
Citations Over TimeTop 1% of 2011 papers
Neil F. Johnson, Spencer Carran, Joel Botner, Kyle Fontaine, Nathan J. M. Laxague, Philip Nuetzel, Jessica Glicken Turnley, Brian F. Tivnan
Abstract
In military planning, it is important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. We uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks. The time difference between fatal attacks by insurgent groups within individual provinces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and by terrorist groups operating worldwide, gives a potent indicator of the later pace of lethal activity.
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