The Kondratieff Cycles and Technological Modes in the Economies of Russia and Developed Countries

Citations Over TimeTop 10% of 2014 papers

Abstract

The paper presents research program for studying the Kondratieff cycles and
 technological modes in the Russian and foreign countries economies. It is proposed
 to identify Kondratieff (long) cycles through the use of spectral analysis
 and econometric models of economic dynamics, and further, based on findings
 on Kondratieff cycles, to design models of economic dynamics that reflect the
 productivity of different technological modes. It is further proposed to build
 technological modes based on V. Maevsky’s proposals. To evaluate how production
 factors affect the process of technological modes development the
 author proposes to build econometric models in the form of Cobb-Douglas
 functions. To feed the models cross-sectional data provided by the Russian
 Federal State Statistics Service should be used with the breakdown by regions.
 Through the above-mentioned techniques the author has succeeded in identifying
 Kondratieff cycles for a number of developed economies. Using the econometric
 models with piecewise linear functions of technological modes impact
 the author evaluates of modern technological modes efficiency in the developed
 economies. Also the development of the fifth and the sixth technological modes
 in the Russian economy is assessed. The author also forecasts the pace of
 transiting to new technological modes in the RF and the foreign countries
 for the period until 2030. It is evidenced that if current trends are in play,
 the percentage of new technological modes in Russia will reach 30 per cent,
 while in the developed economies the percentage of new technological modes
 will get close to 100 per cent.

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