Effect of LUCC on runoff of three representative watersheds in Dongjiang River Basin

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Abstract

应用SWAT模型对东江上中下游典型流域的地表径流进行模拟, 采用1977-1981年和1996-2000年胜前、顺天和九州三个出口控制站逐月实测径流资料进行模型校准和验证, 确定模型的敏感性参数, 采用相关系数R2和Nash-Suttclife模型效率系数E_NS, 对SWAT模型模拟结果进行评价, 结果显示模拟精度较高, R2>0.85, E_NS在0.68-0.75之间.在此基础上进一步探讨了典型流域土地利用变化对地表径流的影响, 研究认为林地面积的增加可导致年径流量减少;年内分配上枯水期径流明显增加, 丰水期径流明显减少;小于15°的林地面积增加引起的径流减少作用更为明显。;With the hydrological model SWAT, the runoff variation of three representative watersheds in Dongjiang River Basin was simulated.With discharge data from Shengqian, Shuntian and Jiuzhou hydrological stations in 1977-1981 and 1996-2000, more sensitive hydrology factors were calibrated and satisfactory simulation results were obtained (R2>0.85, 0.68 NS <0.75).The study investigated the influences of LUCC on the hydrological process of the three watersheds.The result shows that:(1) the in-crease of forest area was the cause of annual runoff decrease;(2) in terms of annual variability, runoff decrease in the wet season while increase in the dry season;(3) the decrease of runoff becomes more notable when the forest area increases with slope <15°.

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