Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models
Abstract
Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.
Related Papers
- → Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth system resilience in the Anthropocene(2020)214 cited
- → Recent progresses in incorporating human land–water management into global land surface models toward their integration into Earth system models(2016)193 cited
- → Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth System resilience in the Anthropocene(2019)26 cited
- → An Earth system law perspective on governing social-hydrological systems in the Anthropocene(2021)18 cited
- → 12 Global earth observation system of systems and the coordinated enhanced observing period high altitude observatories(2007)