Actionable Capability for Social and Economic Systems (ACSES)

Abstract

The foundation of the Actionable Capability for Social and Economic Systems (ACSES) project is a useful regional-scale social-simulation system. This report is organized into five chapters that describe insights that were gained concerning the five key feasibility questions pertaining to such a system: (1) Should such a simulation system exist, would the current state of data sets or collectible data sets be adequate to support such a system? (2) By comparing different agent-based simulation systems, is it feasible to compare simulation systems and select one appropriate for a given application with agents behaving according to modern social theory rather than ad hoc rule sets? (3) Provided that a selected simulation system for a region of interest could be constructed, can the simulation system be updated with new and changing conditions so that the universe of potential outcomes are constrained by events on the ground as they evolve? (4) As these results are constrained by evolving events on the ground, is it feasible to still generate surprise and emerging behavior to suggest outcomes from novel courses of action? (5) As these systems may for the first time require large numbers (hundreds of millions) of agents operating with complexities demanded of modern social theories, can results still be generated within actionable decision cycles?

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