Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism

Citations Over Time

Abstract

Despite hundreds of above-ground nuclear tests and data gathered from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the effects of a ground-level, low-yield nuclear detonation in a modern urban environment are still the subject of considerable scientific debate. Extensive review of nuclear weapon effects studies and discussions with nuclear weapon effects experts from various federal agencies, national laboratories, and technical organizations have identified key issues and bounded some of the unknowns required to support response planning for a low-yield, ground-level nuclear detonation in a modern U.S. city. This study, which is focused primarily upon the hazards posed by radioactive fallout, used detailed fallout predictions from the advanced suite of three-dimensional (3-D) meteorology and plume/fallout models developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), including extensive global Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism geographical and real-time meteorological databases to support model calculations. This 3-D modeling system provides detailed simulations that account for complex meteorology and terrain effects. The results of initial modeling and analysis were presented to federal, state, and local working groups to obtain critical, broad-based review and feedback on strategy and messaging. This effort involved a diverse set of communities, including New York City, National Capitol Regions, Charlotte, Houston, Portland, and Los Angeles. The largest potential for reducing casualties during the post-detonation response phase comes from reducing exposure to fallout radiation. This can be accomplished through early, adequate sheltering followed by informed, delayed evacuation.B The response challenges to a nuclear detonation must be solved through multiple approaches of public education, planning, and rapid response actions. Because the successful response will require extensive coordination of a large number of organizations, supplemented by appropriate responses by local responders and the general population within the hazard zones, regional planning is essential to success. The remainder of this Executive Summary provides summary guidance for response planning in three areas: (1) Public Protection Strategy details the importance of early, adequate shelter followed by informed evacuation. (2) Responder Priorities identify how to protect response personnel, perform regional situational assessment, and support public safety. (3) Key Planning Considerations refute common myths and provide important information on planning how to respond in the aftermath of nuclear terrorism.

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