Identification of a Susceptible and High-Risk Population for Postoperative Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome in Older Adults: Machine Learning–Based Predictive Model (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is a serious postoperative complication among older adult surgical patients that frequently develops into sepsis or even death. Notably, the incidences of SIRS and sepsis steadily increase with age. It is important to identify the risk of postoperative SIRS for older adult patients at a sufficiently early stage, which would allow preemptive individualized enhanced therapy to be conducted to improve the prognosis of older adult patients. In recent years, machine learning (ML) models have been deployed by researchers for many tasks, including disease prediction and risk stratification, exhibiting good application potential. OBJECTIVE We aimed to develop and validate an individualized predictive model to identify susceptible and high-risk populations for SIRS in older adult patients to instruct appropriate early interventions. METHODS Data for surgical patients aged ≥65 years from September 2015 to September 2020 in 3 independent medical centers were retrieved and analyzed. The eligible patient cohort in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University was randomly separated into an 80% training set (2882 patients) and a 20% internal validation set (720 patients). We developed 4 ML models to predict postoperative SIRS. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), <i>F</i><sub>1</sub> score, Brier score, and calibration curve were used to evaluate the model performance. The model with the best performance was further validated in the other 2 independent data sets involving 844 and 307 cases, respectively. RESULTS The incidences of SIRS in the 3 medical centers were 24.3% (876/3602), 29.6% (250/844), and 6.5% (20/307), respectively. We identified 15 variables that were significantly associated with postoperative SIRS and used in 4 ML models to predict postoperative SIRS. A balanced cutoff between sensitivity and specificity was chosen to ensure as high a true positive as possible. The random forest classifier (RF) model showed the best overall performance to predict postoperative SIRS, with an AUC of 0.751 (95% CI 0.709-0.793), sensitivity of 0.682, specificity of 0.681, and <i>F</i><sub>1</sub> score of 0.508 in the internal validation set and higher AUCs in the external validation-1 set (0.759, 95% CI 0.723-0.795) and external validation-2 set (0.804, 95% CI 0.746-0.863). CONCLUSIONS We developed and validated a generalizable RF model to predict postoperative SIRS in older adult patients, enabling clinicians to screen susceptible and high-risk patients and implement early individualized interventions. An online risk calculator to make the RF model accessible to anesthesiologists and peers around the world was developed.

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