Prediction of Reactivation After Antivascular Endothelial Growth Factor Monotherapy for Retinopathy of Prematurity: Multimodal Machine Learning Model Study (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is the leading preventable cause of childhood blindness. A timely intravitreal injection of antivascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) is required to prevent retinal detachment with consequent vision impairment and loss. However, anti-VEGF has been reported to be associated with ROP reactivation. Therefore, an accurate prediction of reactivation after treatment is urgently needed. OBJECTIVE To develop and validate prediction models for reactivation after anti-VEGF intravitreal injection in infants with ROP using multimodal machine learning algorithms. METHODS Infants with ROP undergoing anti-VEGF treatment were recruited from 3 hospitals, and conventional machine learning, deep learning, and fusion models were constructed. The areas under the curve (AUCs), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were used to show the performances of the prediction models. RESULTS A total of 239 cases with anti-VEGF treatment were recruited, including 90 (37.66%) with reactivation and 149 (62.34%) nonreactivation cases. The AUCs for the conventional machine learning model were 0.806 and 0.805 in the internal validation and test groups, respectively. The average AUC, sensitivity, and specificity in the test for the deep learning model were 0.787, 0.800, and 0.570, respectively. The specificity, AUC, and sensitivity for the fusion model were 0.686, 0.822, and 0.800 in a test, separately. CONCLUSIONS We constructed 3 prediction models for ROP reactivation. The fusion model achieved the best performance. Using this prediction model, we could optimize strategies for treating ROP in infants and develop better screening plans after treatment.

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