Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: A Comparison of Two Performance Measures

Abstract

AbstractAgricultural producers and marketers often have access to several sets of forecasts on the same series. Decision makers must be able to evaluate the relative accuracy of the forecasts. The ability to evaluate whether a series will move up or down is important for series related to futures, options, other asset prices, and situations where processes can be modified according to changing economic conditions. A measure of qualitative forecast accuracy from Naik and Leuthold is compared to a probability‐based measure developed by Henriksson and Merton. The Henriksson‐Merton measure is shown to provide additional, and more accurate, information concerning a model's qualitative forecasting ability.