The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns and Economic Implications: A Longitudinal Study of 67 Countries Covering the Period 1720-1984.

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Abstract

Introduction: the theory of demographic transition - its conciseness, diversity and flexibility - problems, methods and the field of enquiry. Part 1 Stages of demographic transition: demographic transition - the current position the decline in mortality the fertility decline divergence and concordance the migration transition the notion of the cycle in demography - is post-transition fertility cyclical? Part 2 Forms of demographic transition: the types of demographic transition chronology and typology of the ageing of populations the transitional multiplier of population industrial revolution and demographic revolution in the 18th century - the French-English paradox European transitions from Malthus to Pincus contemporary transitions - the strength of the model revolution of mental attitudes and demographic revolution. Part 3 Economic implications of demographic transition: economic stagnation and neo-Malthusianism - two falsely opposed models economic progress and demographic transition in poor countries - 30 years of experience, 1950-1980 secular growth in the industrial world economic breakthrough in poor countries. Appendices: Crude birth-rates total fertility rates crude death-rates infant mortality rates real product.

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