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Report 30: The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China

Spiral (Imperial College London)2020

Citations Over TimeTop 25% of 2020 papers

Han Fu, Xin Xi, H Wang, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Y Wang, Wes Hinsley, Keith Fraser, Ruth McCabe, Daniela Olivera Mesa, Janetta Skarp, Alice Ledda, Tamsin Dewé, Amy Dighe, Peter Winskill, Sabine van Elsland, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Samir Bhatt, Olivia Boyd, N Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Grant Charles, Helen Coupland, Zulma M. Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Christl A. Donnelly, Ilaria Dorigatti, W Green, Alexandra B. Hogan, Katharina Hauck, David Haw, B Jeffrey, Daniel J. Laydon, Jonathan Lees, Thomas A. Mellan, Sanjaya Mishra, G Nedjati Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Lucy Okell, Kris V. Parag, Manon Ragonnet‐Cronin, Steven Riley, Nora Schmit, H. H. Thompson, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Robert Verity, Michaela Vollmer, Erik Volz, Patrick Walker, C Walters, O Watson, Charles Whittaker, Lilith K. Whittles, Noboru Imai, Smita Bhatia, Neil M. Ferguson

Abstract

Hubei and other provinces in China are the first affected areas of the COVID-19 pandemic.From January to March 2020, these areas experienced first waves of COVID-19 transmission, which were mostly contained following the implementation of several control measures.To understand the epidemic trends of COVID-19 in China, we carried out data collation and descriptive analysis in 31 provinces or municipalities, with a focus on the six most-affected ones.An overview of control measures at the subnational level reveals that school closures, travel restrictions, closed-off management (community-level lockdown) and contact tracing were introduced concurrently around late January but resulted in different impacts across provinces.Compared to Hubei province, the origin of the COVID-19 outbreak, the other five most-affected provinces reported a lower crude case fatality ratio and proportion of severe hospitalised cases over time.In Hubei, there were fewer contacts traced per case, consistent with the contact frequency observed during the lockdown period.From March 2020, the first waves driven by local transmission declined, while the burden of imported cases increased.Focus of control measures was therefore shifted towards testing and quarantine of inbound travellers, to continue the suppression of transmission.The description of the course of the epidemic and the timing of intervention is consistent with the interpretation that early implementation and timely adjustment of control measures could be important in containing transmission and minimising adverse outcomes of COVID-19.However, further investigation will be needed to disentangle the effectiveness of different control measures.By making the collated data publicly available, we also provide an additional source for research and policy planning in other settings with an ongoing epidemic.

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Abstract

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