An Effective Methodology for Diabetes Prediction in the Case of Class Imbalance

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Abstract

Diabetes causes an increase in the level of blood sugar, which leads to damage to various parts of the human body. Diabetes data are used not only for providing a deeper understanding of the treatment mechanisms but also for predicting the probability that one might become sick. This paper proposes a novel methodology to perform classification in the case of heavy class imbalance, as observed in the PIMA diabetes dataset. The proposed methodology uses two novel steps, namely resampling and random shuffling prior to defining the classification model. The methodology is tested with two versions of cross validation that are appropriate in cases of class imbalance-k-fold cross validation and stratified k-fold cross validation. Our findings suggest that when having imbalanced data, shuffling the data randomly prior to a train/test split can help improve estimation metrics. Our methodology can outperform existing machine learning algorithms and complex deep learning models. Applying our proposed methodology is a simple and fast way to predict labels with class imbalance. It does not require additional techniques to balance classes. It does not involve preselecting important variables, which saves time and makes the model easy for analysis. This makes it an effective methodology for initial and further modeling of data with class imbalance. Moreover, our methodologies show how to increase the effectiveness of the machine learning models based on the standard approaches and make them more reliable.

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