Determinants of Adapting to the Consequences of Climate Change in the Peruvian Highlands: The Role of General and Behavior-Specific Evaluations, Experiences, and Expectations

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Abstract

Progressive climate change (CC) forces people—particularly in the Global South—to adapt to its consequences, some of which include droughts, flooding, and new diseases. This study investigates the determinants of behaviors for adapting to these threats in a population from the region of Cusco (Peru). Data were gathered via a cross-sectional interview-based survey in 2016, using random-route sampling. For up to 542 cases, we regressed a scale combining performed behaviors and intentions on psychological constructs, for the entire and sub-samples (n > 179, allowing to detect an R2 of 10% with a power of 80% at p = 0.05). Behavior-specific evaluations—particularly perceived feasibility (β = 0.355), descriptive norms (β = 0.267), and cost-benefit evaluations (β = 0.235)—can explain most of the variance (44% with a total R2 = 61%). Furthermore, trust in specific sources (β = 0.106), general trust (β = 0.098), and negative attitudes toward nature (β = 0.077) are positively related to adaptation, particularly regarding public behaviors (supporting community projects and policies). However, evaluations directly related to CC, such as risk perception (β = 0.010) or how much a behavior helps prevent damage (adaptation efficacy, β = −0.042)), do not explain adaptation, except for an effect of adaptation efficacy on changing daily behaviors. Experiences with and expectations of CC consequences are mostly unrelated to adaptation. However, worries about such events are correlated with adaptation (r between 0.097 and 0.360). We conclude that, to promote adaptation behaviors in this region, the focus should be on the characteristics of the behavior performance (e.g., its costs or feasibility), not on the expected risks of extreme events because of CC.

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