Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

Citations Over TimeTop 10% of 2016 papers

Abstract

Abstract Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate‐carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8 Ma ago, a possible future warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO 2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3–5.6 to 3.7–6.5 K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming.

Related Papers

• → Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems(2019)48 cited
• → Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming(2016)42 cited
• → Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model(2015)26 cited
• → Global Warming and Climate Change(2018)2 cited
• → On the Sensitivity of Climate Sensitivity in a coupled climate model(2025)